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Volume 6, No. 2, April 1996Editorial I have in the past four months been a part of three international workshops discussing the potential use of IT for development. It appears that in most developing countries, we find that the administration and managerial climate is not conducive for exploiting IT. Access to information is opening up for few privileged individuals via the Internet. However, access to local information continues to be difficult because of bureaucratic controls. In India, in a small town called Beawar, a unique movement is taking shape. Citizens, largely illiterate, and several NGOs have got together to demand that district administrators share information on expenditure incurred on development in their region. They are demanding xerox copies of such details for wider circulation. Initially, administration was reluctant to provide such information, but is finally relenting at a slow pace. The district administration made a variety of excuses such as non-availability of xerox machines in government offices as a reason for not supplying the information. Shouldn't one be surprised that district offices in India boast of computers and links to wide area networks whereas basic facilities such as xeroxing are not available? Clearly, the idea of using sophisticated technology to create development seems a distant dream. Yet the small town of Beawar is showing us the way as to what needs to be done to make government accountable and to place a premium on bureaucratic transparency. This may lead to rationality in decision-making, and significant use of IT in government may follow. On a different note, I must confess that it has been somewhat difficult to bring out this newsletter as there were few contributions. We should be grateful to those who contribute regularly but the number of such contributors has been dwindling. Chrisanthi has raised the issue of inactive members in her column. Contributions to the newsletter could be an excellent way of demonstrating one's participation in the group. Since we continue to receive positive feedback on the newsletter, I presume that the effort put in to provide an article is worthwhile. I hope we will have many more contributions for the coming issues. I do hope readers will pick on a variety of issues concerning IT in development and write about them for the newsletter.
Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises and IT Diffusion Policies in Europe: Lessons for Developing Countries Renata La Rovere The information and communications technologies industry (IT) has been growing in Europe, as a result of more favorable economic conditions since 1993. While the telecommunications industry is dominated by large companies, 89% of firms in the IT sector have up to 19 employees. The most dynamic sectors are software development and IT services (training, maintenance and outsourcing). In telecommunications, the most dynamic sector is voice and data networks (EITO 1995). Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have several possibilities of development in the sectors mentioned above, therefore the prospects for their growth are positive. In software, demand is growing due to increased use of distributed systems, growing penetration of Unix platforms and applications to automate work flows, increased access to information and multimedia development. In services, demand is growing for consultancy in new IT systems, business process re-engineering software maintenance and outrsourcing. Even in the data networks sector, dominated by large tele-communications operators, SMEs have opportunities in network management and applications development. However, Europe still has several problems concerning IT diffusion. The first is that IT penetration and lines per inhabitant rates vary widely across European countries (see tables 1 and 2). The second is that both software and IT services are sectors that are going through a concentration process that may hinder SMEs entry in the market, especially in software. (EITO 1995) Table 1: IT Penetration Rates in Europe ------------------------------------------------------ Norway
2.62 0.97 Table 2: Lines and
Mobile Connections per inhabitants Sweden
69
97 The European Union has been trying to solve the disparities shown by the tables by setting up several action programs. While in the 80's and early 90's most of these programs were supply-oriented, more recently the EU has also been giving attention to demand policies. The IT Work Programme 1994 changed the focus from supply to demand issues. The goal of the program is to 'contribute to the healthy growth of the information infrastructure so as to improve the competitiveness of all industry in Europe and help enhance the quality of life'. The program aims to involve users in all its areas of implementation, which are: software, technologies for components and subsystems, multimedia systems, long term research, open microprocessor systems, high performance computing and networking, technologies for business processes and integration in manufacturing. User participation is stimulated by networks of excellence, that gather centres of excellence across Europe, and by user-supplier collaborations. Finally, the program also aims to stimulate SMEs to participate, giving them exploratory awards to cover the costs of preparing proposals for the program. The Fourth Framework Programme will invest a total of 3,405 million ECU in research, technological development and demonstration in the ICT area. The framework program encompasses several other programs. Some of these started several years ago, and the present programs are continuing earlier efforts. Despite the variety of programs offered and the positive prospects of the industry, SMEs still face several obstacles to use and produce IT in Europe. Some of them are related to these firms' characteristics: lack of resources, lack of information about IT commercial possibilities and lack of an IT culture. Even simple applications like e-mail have a low rate of use (see table 3). Table 3: Electronic Mail
Use in European Firms Country
Large firms Small firms Sweden
63
29 Therefore, it is not sufficient to implement support programs to stimulate SMEs participation in the IT sector. On the contrary, too many support programs may have an adverse effect on SMEs, by increasing the cost for the firm to locate the appropriate program. In addition, most policies for SME support are implemented ad-hoc, which adds to difficulties concerning information (Storey 1994). Information about support opportunities must be provided at a local level. The locality is essential in the building of trust relationships, much valued by SMEs (OECD 1993), and to build the learning system that determines SMEs' IT needs (Camagni 1991). The challenges for developing countries are increased due to their precarious telecommunications infrastructure. Besides, as Correa (1994) observes, IT diffusion patterns vary not only according to revenue per capita, but also according to organizational and social factors. IT diffusion in developing countries is lower than in developed ones due to the smaller average size of firms, higher relative cost of equipment lack of sound user-provider relationships and lower competitive advantages related to IT adoption. Empirical studies on SMEs in developing countries show that usually these firms do not have the means to assess costs and benefits linked to IT and do not trust providers. They also show that, the more intense the IT use, the more the firm is aware of the possibilities of applications in production and management. The difficulties that developing countries' SMEs have in adopting IT suggest that a policy for IT diffusion should be centered in several actions. On the supply side, measures to improve the telecommunications infrastructure, special financing conditions, and training the work force. On the demand side, measures to widen the access to information about IT and offer consulting services to develop IT-based solutions for the firms (Correa 1994). In addition, user-producer links should be stimulated, as well as links with local cooperatives and universities and development of firm networks. Finally, the European experience suggests that policies should be implemented at a local level, in order to attain more SMEs. References: Camagni, R., Innovation
Networks: Spatial Perspectives, Belhaven Press, London, 1991. Implications for Brazil of the Globalisation Process in the Telecommunications Sector Victor Prochnik Introduction The telecommunications sector is going through a radical restructuring process. Along with the introduction and dissemination of new services, one finds a growing internationalisation in the supply of telecommunications services, a sector which previously operated on a national basis. It is estimated that by the end of the century the world voice and data traffic will be dominated by about five or six major global corporations (see Economist, "Telecommunications Survey", October 1991, p.25) The reformulation of the Brazilian telecommunications system goes ahead within this international context and is the subject of intense discussion. The public debate, however, has been focusing on the supply and demand of domestic services. Rarely are the transformations that affect international telecommunications services and, particularly, the corporate telecommunications networks problematized. As we shall see later, the development of these networks is partly responsible for the economic concentration foreseen for the sector and presents important economic policy options at the present time for the Brazilian government. This article will focus on this largely unexplored area of the debate, international corporate telecommunications services. Initially an outline of recent developments will be given, followed by a description of the current formation of international consortia. Finally, there will be a discussion of how the Brazilian Telecommunications System will fit into this new system. In the discussion of economic/political options, the fact that private companies have an enormous interest in investing in the supply of international services is a strategic variable for the Brazilian government. At this moment when market regulation is being discussed, the interest of companies strengthens the government's negotiating position and makes it possible to establish regulations more favourable to the public interest. This is the path that is being followed in countries like South Korea and China. The existence of investment supply above absorption capacity has allowed these national governments to demand various significant concessions from foreign investors, among which one can mention the training and employment of national technicians in high-level posts, participation of national partners, technological modernisation, local manufacturing facilities, plant location in less favoured regions etc. The possibility of an inflow of foreign capital in the telecommunications sector and the contribution expected by the recipient country is not just a debate taking place in the developing countries. The recent U.S. legislation on telecommunications clearly reaffirms the ban on foreign investor control over companies operating in the country. This discussion is justified, therefore, both in terms of the questions which affect Brazil in particular and the recent international experience. Globalisation in the Telecommunications Sector The growing digitalisation of telecommunications has increased the technological intensity of the telecommunications service sector. The 800 telephone service, for example, is a software which reverses the charges, that is to say, the receiver pays not the caller. With digitalisation, the sector has started to share the characteristic common to the other digital technology intensive sectors - software, computer production, semiconductors, satellite production and launching etc. As Chesnay shows (Chesnais
F., "Globalisation, world oligopoly and some of their implications" in
Humbert, M. (Ed.) The Impact of Globalisation on Europe's Firms and Industries,
London & New York Pinter Publishers, 1993, p.18) the main features of
microelectronic based technology are:
The semiconductor sector is a good example, where investments in technology for developing new generations of products and the cost of the associated plant capital have reached the one billion dollar mark. All the above factors work together towards increasing the financial returns of the pioneers of successful innovations and the losses of the others. Investment becomes highly risky for everyone although lucrative for the winners. The fact that these structural factors raise considerable barriers to entering the sectors in question helps to increase industrial concentration. Besides digitalisation, the digital technology sectors have had an important and growing participation in the two recent investment cycles abroad. The first began in the mid-1980s and went until the start of the recession in the developed countries around 1991. With the end of the recession in 1993 the majority of developed countries began the present cycle. One general characteristic of these cycles and also another factor behind the formation of global oligopolies in technology intensive sectors was the more variable forms of investment, such as non-majority equity holdings, licensing deals and strategic alliances. Strategic alliances are particularly important for the technology intensive sectors where, faced with a situation of different emerging technologies and high technical, commercial and financial risk, competing firms tend to seek allies, forming horizontal networks. Among the various common objectives, non-excluding among themselves, the following are commonly pointed to in the technical literature on strategic alliances: complementing competitive advantages and particularly technological know-how, sharing the development risks of entering new markets, cross access to already familiar markets, division of costs and forming barriers to the entry of new competitors. Having looked at the most important aspects of recent developments in the digital technology based sectors, let us turn to a specific discussion of the telecommunications sector. In this sector, the characteristics of the globalisation process can be grouped into four classes, technological development, new patterns of demand and new markets, the strategy of the major companies and the role of national governments (the latter will be dealt with in the next section). Among the technological trends in the sector of particular importance is the growing technological convergence between information technology and telecommunications, associated with the introduction and dissemination of new technologies in the two areas. For example, one is seeing a growing interconnection of computers in companies. In corporate networks, so formed, the variety of telecommunications services is increasing. One can mention among the services, the widespread use of E-mail, work group software such as Lotus NOTES and the increasing dissemination of the video conference and virtual reality applications. Among all the economic impacts of the changes under way in the telecommunications sector "... the death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force moulding society in the first half of the next century." (Caincross, F.," The death of distance", Survey Telecommunications, The Economist, 30 September 1995, p.5). The decreasing importance of the distance of calls in the composition of service costs is related to the increasing share of fixed costs in business ventures, as mentioned above. The operations centre of a network, now a computer, no longer needs to be close to the other points of the network. The major part of teleinformation activities of a multinational corporation, intensive in aggregate value, can be located in any country. Citibank, for example, took its computers and qualified staff to Florida, where it set up its telecommunications centre for Latin America. In a climate of rapid change, such as that of telecommunications, there is a strong interaction between technological development and market expansion (interaction with the competitive moves of the suppliers of telecommunications services and with government regulation are analysed later). Among the most promising markets today is that created by the trend towards outsourcing of corporate networks and the expansion of telecommunications services in the developing countries. In the 1980s many large companies set up private corporate networks. For this purpose, they hired the means of transmission (satellite channels, cable circuits etc) from the suppliers of telecommunications services, installed equipment at the terminal points and ran their own networks. The installation and operation of telecommunications networks are not end activities for the major corporations, but they proved in most cases to be compensatory due to three basic factors: the greater reliability of private networks, the scope for installing services not found in the public networks and lower unit costs, because the channels are rented at a fixed price, less sensitive to the volume of transmission - (Office of Technology Assessment, " US Banks and International Telecommunications - background paper" - OTA-BP-TCT-100, Washington, DC, 1992, pp. 7/8). The networks of major Brazilian companies are generally privately operated. Abroad this situation has begun to change with the supply of virtual private networks (VPN) by the major telecommunications service companies. In such networks the transmission capacity required by the client company is allocated dynamically within the network of the telecommunications service supplier. The growing sophistication of telecommunications service companies and the economies of scale to be gained enable the client companies to obtain the same quality as their internal services in the VPN at a lower cost. The market for corporate network outsourcing has rapidly grown since then. In the United States alone this market was estimated at 3.5 billion dollars in 1991. By the end of the decade, the market could grow to as much as 20 billion dollars annually. On the supply side availability is still catching up, but the multinational companies are showing great interest in contracting a VPN, with a wide variety of services, through one supplier, in different parts of the globe (one stop shopping). In this way the responsibilities for the complex operation of corporate networks are concentrated and their investment in what are considered to be non-core activities is reduced. The supplier, the provider of global services, undertakes the subcontracting in different countries with its allies. In such a situation the main telecommunications service companies worldwide are joining forces to provide services in an integrated form. Other factors also responsible for the internationalisation and integration of telecommunications service companies are: investment opportunities arising from the liberalisation processes of national markets, user pressures through calling card and call back services, the progressive indifferentiation between data and voice networks etc. Various factors impede the leading companies providing telecommunications services from setting up their networks without forming alliances with potential competitors. Among these, the detailed knowledge and presence in local markets required to form a world network and the magnitude of financial resources needed to carry out an undertaking on this scale are of paramount importance. On a worldwide level, the move towards alliances is wide-ranging. The most well-known alliances are Concert (uniting the American MCI with British Telecom), Atlas (Deutsche Telecom and France Telecom, among others) and the World Partners alliance. The latter currently includes AT&T, Singapore Telecom and the Japanese KDD among its leader. Telebrás is the largest telecommunications company in the world not to form part of any of these alliances being formed. Finally one can notice that the formation of strategic international alliances to meet the needs of transnational clients represents a qualitatively important step in the internationalisation process of companies in the telecommunications sector. The operation of the corporate networks of client companies, without solving continuity within the heterogeneous union of associated supplier networks, requires that the suppliers’ service systems are closely integrated on an international level. Scope for Brazilian Telecommunications System The participation of the Brazilian telecommunications system in the process of forming international alliances depends on the interest of the government and its power at the negotiating table. Although the press have reported that Brazil is planning to take part in one of the strategic alliances, one cannot help regret the long delay on the part of the government in making a decision. In view of recent international developments in the supply structure of the telecommunications sector, it is important for Brazil to speed up negotiations concerning the participation of Brazilian companies in strategic alliances with leading international companies. Brazil's clout at the negotiating table is in turn conditioned by the size of the Brazilian market and the technological expertise of the national telecommunications system, as the examples of China and South Korea which follow clearly show. China has the largest market potential for telecommunications services, currently in a stage of rapid expansion. In 1994 alone the Chinese government invested six billion dollars in the sector and, over the following six years plans to invest 90 billion dollars to raise the number of lines per 100 inhabitants from 2 to 10 (see Keller JJ and Brauchli MW, A Corrida pelo Ouro da China, The Chinese Gold Rush, Gazeta Mercantil, 29/4/94). According to the same source, the Chinese government announced in January 1994 that it would reduce the number of suppliers of transmission networks from 12 to 3 or 4. For companies, success in this market is vital. Given the investment cost in R&D of a new generation of equipment and the scale of sales necessary to absorb these outlays, the companies that have not been selected will in practice be impeded from continuing at the leading edge of technology. This situation puts the Chinese government in the comfortable position of being able to exact various advantages. The above-mentioned article, for example, cites low interest loans, the construction of advanced manufacturing facilities under Chinese control even through the bulk of the capital and technology is foreign, employment of Chinese technicians in developing new products and pressure on the US government, through threats to such firms as ATT to maintain its most favoured nation trading status. The Korean case, insofar as this county does not have the natural advantages of the larger Chinese market, is even more interesting, although not in respect of telecommunications services. South Korea signed a contract to buy high speed trains from the French company GEC Alshtom, which won a bid tender against the Siemens/Mitsubishi consortium. In order to win, GEC Alshtom was obliged to i) subcontract three Korean companies which will build in South Korea itself 34 of the 46 trains contracted for; ii) to transfer the project and all rights over the technology to the Koreans in the year 2002 allowing thereby a local South Korean competitor to set up shop and iii) reduce the initial price of 3.6 billion dollars to 2.1 billion dollars. These two examples also introduce another dimension to the problem, Brazil’s position within a strategic alliance. The continuity of a strategic alliance depends on how the interests of the participants evolve. Alliances in which one partner enters with the market and other with the technology tend rapidly to become unstable, with losses for the former. Generally speaking it is easier for the partner which initially has the technology to familiarise and establish itself in the target market than for the inverse to happen. Various alliances between Japanese and American firms, seeking to put Japanese products on the U.S. market have ended up with the U.S. partner pulling out of the alliance. Without having absorbed the technology in which they were interested in, the U.S. companies ended up also losing their strategic advantage, market domination: It is fundamental, therefore, in Brazil's expected participation in one of the strategic international alliances to discuss technology transfer and Brazilian participation in developing the next generations of systems and services. This conclusion is based on the fact that new productive capacity does not automatically lead in the developing countries to technological capacity. It is not known if this lesson, all too clear to students of economic development, is common knowledge among the formulators of economic policy in Brazil. James Corbin The Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) was formed in 1973 by the Treaty of Chaguaramas. The original signatories to the treaty included the Prime Ministers of Barbados, jamaica, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. Today the members countries of CARICOM are; Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Monsterrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Trinidad and Tobago. The history of Internet in CARICOM region has its genesis in the United Nations Conference on "Sustainable Development For Small Island Developing States" which was held in Barbados from April 25 to May 6,1994. Certain participants in this conference had access to the Internet in their home countries and to satisfy this requirement the Barbados External Telecommunications Limited (BET), the long distance carrier, created shell accounts for these participants therby enabling them to use electronic mail, FTP and Telnet for the duration of the conference. This service was then marketed in Barbados. In July 1995, BET's
Internet access was upgraded to a full World Wide Web (WWW) service. There
are currently three Internet Access Providers in Barbados. Due to Cable and Wireless involvement, the WWW server at BET in Barbados also performs Internet access service for Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Kitts, St. Vincent, Dominica and Monsterrat. The server at BET can be accessed by a local call in St. Kitts, St. Vincent, Grenada and the United States. Internet access for Jamaica, Antigua, Trinidad and Tobago is provided by servers located in the respective countries. All these access nodes form part of Cable and Wireless global internet service which is designed to provide one stop shopping for global customers. Table 1 shows the number of access providers on a country by country basis. The basic requirement for access to the Internet is a telephone line, a modem and a personal computer. Telephone penetration in the CARICOM (see Fig 1) range from 6 telephones for every 100 persons in Guyana, to 40 telephones for every 100 persons in Monsterrat. The cost of a typical multimedia pentium PC ranges in price from US$2700 to S$3500 depending on import duties and other taxes levied by the various countries. Such a computer in the USA will cost about US$1800. The cost of accessing the Internet varies from country to country. But in each country a tier tariff system based on usage is used. Some countries also sell various packages with various pricing depending on use. Some access providers have a flat rate (US$25.00) which is independent of use. In some countries the local call to the access provider is charged at a flat rate, in other countries it is paid for on a usage basis. The following illustrates typical pricing structures based on a monthly billing cycle. Cable and Wireless Antigua 0 to 10 hours
US$24.00 Telecommunications of Jamaica 0 to 10 hours
US$2.20 per hour Barbados External Telecommunications Limited 0 to 10 hours
US$12.50 Some of the key issues Caribbean governments will have to face as a consequence of the proliferation of the Internet include gambling, pornography, electronic cash and intellectual property. World sports has created a WWW site in Antigu and offers gambling to its customers in the USA. Overtures have been made to governments of several other countries to establish online casinos in their countries. Belize is considering legislation to legalise online gambling via the Internet. A pornographic site in one country is advertised in PC magazine. However the power of the Internet can be harnessed to aid economic development in the areas of tourism, manufacturing and offshore financial services. Use of GIS Based DSS for Sustainable Development: Experience and Potential Professor Patrick A.V.
Hall, This report is based on a workshop held at the UNU/IIST in Macau, sponsored by IDRC. TuBao Ho, Vietnam, J. G. Krishnayya, India, and Subhash Bhatnagar, India who are members of WG 9.4 also took part in the Workshop. Several participants and authors of papers presented at the workshop contributed to this report through a discussion on a list server. Development should be sustainable, ie. development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundtland). Indigenous peoples have lived in harmony and stability with their environment for centuries, and this knowledge must be incorporated into the decision making process. Methods of development must be appropriate to the people and the environment in which they are applied. Decisions must be made not by aid agencies but by the people in the countries themselves. It is the involvement of the people themselves at all levels that is absolutely critical in making development sustainable. Development involves making decisions, making choices amongst alternative possible development paths, selecting one line of action which returns benefit to the developing country. It is important that these decisions are made well, using the best information, methods and tools available. For sustainable development we need to make decisions that do not have long term negative effects, and assess the long term effects and impacts as well as the short term benefits. Because predictions can only be approximate, we cannot make decisions once and for all time, they need to be revisited and revised as the real consequences of decisions are revealed in practice. We describe geographic information systems (GIS) as an important recent approach to support decisions in development. 1. Geographic Information Systems Geographic information systems (GIS) provide the ability to store and display maps and associated information. There are two methods for doing this - as "networks" in which the geographical area is divided into a number of polygons whose corners and interconnections are stored, and as "rasters" in which the area is divided into many small uniformly sized rectangles. Over these can be laid further networks of roads, rivers, boundaries and so on, as well as the locations of towns and similar features. Areas can be divided along theme lines, dividing the area according to certain criteria and displaying the theme map to highlight these areas. These two representations are equivalent and can be converted one to the other, but the representations favour different calculations. Examples of the network approach are Themaps (J. G. Krishnayya, Systems Research Institute, Pune, India) and Redatam, and of the raster approach is Idrisi (J. Ron Eastman, The Clark Labs, Clark University, USA). GIS systems have arisen from a number of application areas: cartography, surveying, civil engineering. However the key thing that has led to their rise to prominence have been the development of remote sensing and the increase in performance and decrease in costs of the technology necessary to make GIS systems usable. Geographic information systems are capable of integrating geographical data with other data from various sources to provide the information necessary for effective decision making in planning sustainable development. Typically a GIS systems serves both as a tool box and a database. As a tool box, GIS allows planners to perform spatial analysis using its geoprocessing or cartographic modelling functions such as data retrieval, map overlay and connectivity. Of all the geoprocessing functions, map overlay is probably the most useful tool for planning and decision making -there is a long tradition of using map overlays in land suitability analysis. Decision makers can also extract data from the database of GIS and input it to other modelling and analysis programs together with data from other database or specially conducted surveys. It has been used in information retrieval, development control, mapping, site selection, land use planning, land suitability analysis, and programming and monitoring. 2. Experience of using DSS in Sustainable Development Brent Hall, University of Waterloo, Canada and his team reported on use of GIS in tourism planning and in the consideration of the environmental impact of tourism on fragile reefs in the Cayman Islands. In China the use of GIS for disaster monitoring using remote sensing data has been very effective. It is clear that where the financial resources are available, the use of GIS based DSS can be effective but this level of financial provision and administrative experience is not easily found in DCs. Bhatnagar reported on the use of a DSS for planning the locations of new infrastructure in a district in India. He highlighted the need for cleaning up data and changing attitudes of decision makers to accept rational ways of decision making. Often data just cannot be collected, but decisions still have to be made, as has been seen in the planning of water resources in Zaire (M. K. Luhandjula, University of Kinshasa, Zaire) The capturing of indigenous knowledge is seen as important, but in doing this the intellectual property right should be protected, as is being done in the Honey Bee network in India (Anil Gupta & Srinivas Chokkakula, IIM, Ahmedabad). Internationally recognised IPR legal instruments are being used. In China rampant land development as a result of economic reform in 1978 has led to the encroachment of agricultural land in the Pearl River Delta. Official figures show that arable land in the Pearl River Delta has decreased from 1,044.7 thousand hectares in 1980 to 898.2 thousand hectares in 1991, a decrease of 14.0% in ten years. It is clear that the interface of decision support systems is all important, so that their intended users find them easy to use and to understand. This has led the developer of a system to help regional decision making in the Philippines to select software for its superior interface, even when other aspects of the needed functionality would suggest different choices. The uptake of the decision support technology is conditioned by prior experience in using information technologies. Specialist GIS advisors in Egypt found that they were asked not to give advice on GIS but on the use of computers for more routine office functions. In the Philippines support is being provided not only for the annual round of financial planning but also for the routine all-year-round operational activities. 3. Deploying Decision Support Systems in Sustainable Development: Some Lessons From all these case studies we have learnt a number of lessons which are discussed below. 3.1 Lack of Quality Data The lack of available data is one of the major hindrances in the use of GIS for SD. Data is vital. In developed countries, most data needed is readily available thus making the establishment of a DSS relatively easy, but data is not so readily available in the developing countries. The most readily available data are those from remote sensing, but these are mainly limited to land cover information from which a very limited amount of information can be extracted. Base maps are often lacking or outdated, compiled by different agencies with different accuracy and map scales and geocoding systems making them difficult to be integrated into the system. Nevertheless much useful planning can be undertaken, as for example in China where satellite remote sensing data has been used in planning for disasters and changes in land use at the national level (He, Zhu Honglei, State Key Lab of Resource and Environment Information System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China) and even at the local level (Chen & Liao, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, China). Socio-economic data, are generally lacking and are often limited mainly to census data, though this can be very useful (Bowerman, University of Waterloo, Canada & Poulard). Socio-economic data requires field surveys which are expensive and time consuming. However, the main obstacle still lies in government recognition of the need for statistical information for planning and the willingness to mobilise resources in collecting it. It is not only the availability of data which is a problem but the quality too. In India (Bhatnagar, I.I.M., Ahmedabad, India) it was found that locally collected data could be up to 30% in error: the solution seemed to lie in making the collectors of the data also the beneficiaries, so that they had a stake in the quality of the data collected. The currency of data is very important in decision making and there need to be institutional arrangements to determine, coordinate, and monitor the frequency of data updating, and verifying the quality of the data collected. The centrality of data to the adoption of DSS and the high costs and lead time to acquire data make if highly desirable to ensure that data is seen as a national asset serving multiple purposes. A first step towards acquiring this asset is coordination. Early and relatively cheap measures would include a national register of available data, to forestall repeated and duplicated acquisition. It might also be possible to encourage projects to extend their activities to acquire, at low incremental cost, additional data which is highly likely to be used by other projects. A second step is encouragement of adoption of standards for the content and representation of data, to provide a formal guarantee that the data will be applicable to other projects. 3.2 Current Decision making practice and the need for education and training. The current practice of decision making in developing countries has not advanced much in comparison to the tools available to help. The skills of planners and the planning system may not be ready to utilise the data and functions available, and may not yet be aware of the benefits and potential applications of technology. Little effort has been spent on transforming data into information for making decisions. The result of this is that decision making could be made in the interests of a few dominant stake holders. There is a general shortage of trained manpower even in the developed countries. This shortage is more severe in the developing countries both in absolute numbers and relative terms. The problem of training is more severe in the developing countries because of the lack of expertise and shortage of funds in universities who do not lead in the teaching and research of DSS. Very often, it is the government agencies which buy and use the latest systems through funding from international agencies Training programmes are needed for five major groups of users - policy makers, decision takers, programmers, technicians, and educators. Policy makers should be made aware of the uses and limitations of DSS. Decision takers in the field should have a general understanding of data, models, and relational data structures, and the use of DSS functions in different stages of urban and regional planning process. A higher level of technological competence is needed for the training of programmers. They need to be trained to manage the system and to develop application modules to meet local needs. Technicians are need to be trained for data collection and entry, particularly the technical process involved and the likely types of errors. Educators should be kept informed of the latest development of DSS. Universities and higher educational institutions should put more investment in DSS training and research in order to develop local expertise. In the Philippines we have found (Gamboa, EcoKnowMICS Project, Manila, Philippines) that developing human resources is a slow process, requiring many years during which the relevant data would also be gathered and decision support systems developed to fit local needs. It will not necessarily be possible to transport training programmes from developed countries, since the decision making processes may be different. It arises partly from the need to handle uncertainty and risk, but also arises from cultural differences - how decisions are made and agreement reached may be very different. 3.3 Leadership and Organisation The strong influence of leadership and organisational setting on the effective use and introduction of computers is very well documented. A few key individuals interested in computers become instrumental in the initial acquisition of equipment and guide its applications. The function of the leadership is to set clear goals and objectives, to win acceptance among information system users for such goals and objectives, and to provide commitment to achieve project goals and tasks. Another critical function of leadership is coordination of different departments sharing the information system. Lack of prior computer use can also be critical, both in ensuring awareness of their potential, and for the infrastructure to support their use. DSS projects are very often initiated by international assistance agencies and there is a general failure to take account of the organisational setting and personal motivations of those involved. There is evidence of large investments having been made to acquire technology, but there is less evidence that the systems are functioning satisfactorily and contributing to national development efforts. Moreover, problems often arise in the transfer of expertise as well as in maintenance costs when the international assistance left the project. 3.4 Software Development Software for large scale systems is mainly purchased from the developed countries. It is expensive and consumes much foreign currency which is often in short supply. There is a general lack of locally developed software. Attempts have been made to use low cost commercial software to perform DSS tasks, the most popular are the combinations of commercial CAD packages such as AutoCAD with commercial database packages such as dBASE III. These systems, although limited, can make decision support available to departments and agencies with little funding. However, these low cost software systems still need to be purchased from the developed countries. There have been quite a number of software developments in the developing countries. However, their developments are fragmented and most involve one to two researchers. They do not have the manpower and institutional set up to develop and maintain software like the commercial packages from the developed countries. (Krishnayya, Systems Research Institute, Pune, India). There may be a need for different researchers in a country or the region to pool their manpower and resource together to develop a package that can have good documentation, manuals, and support, similar to the commercial packages in the developed countries. Networks need to be established within the developing world and with the developed world. Already there are initiatives to do this in same regions (Noussi, African's Computer Science Institute, Gabon), and this workshop has lead to further trans-national networking. Usability, and particularly the natural language of the interface, is a barrier to the adoption of technology. Most of the imported programs and manuals are written in English, but most of the users, and particularly the decision-makers, have limited understanding of English. User-friendly application programs which hide the technology form the users, with instructions or pull-down menu written in local languages need to be developed in order to enable local planners and decision-makers to use decision support systems.(Pat Hall) 3.5 Maintenance Most of the DSS hardware and software used currently is imported from developed countries. It often takes a long time to repair a piece of hardware, particularly when the necessary components are not readily available locally. Equally, it is difficult to consult software companies when problems arise. Most of the service and expertise are also mainly concentrated in the large cities, especially primary cities, making hardware and software maintenance more problematic for sites located elsewhere. Systems must be available on low-end platforms like PCs, and must be fully serviceable in country, as would arise with locally produced software. Large countries with a substantial requirement for DSS and GIS systems should be encouraged to develop suitable software locally. Funding to acquire the system is mainly available through central government funding or international assistance, but little is available to maintain the system. Very often, the system cannot be in full operation because one or two terminals and peripherals are out of order and the agency responsible does not have funds to repair them. More serious is that there may not be funding and institutional arrangement to update the data after they are created. As decision making needs up-to-date information, the system will be useless if its data are not updated. The development of DSS should be considered as a continuous process and not just a one-off project. The sustainability of the DSSs themselves is important. 4. Conclusions and Recommendations The workshop has established a shared understanding of the current state of development and application of Decision Support Systems for Sustainable Development. The papers written for the workshop will be available through the IDRC library, and a book will be produced documenting a comprehensive range of case studies of decision making for sustainable development and the methods and tools that were used there. This has left us with a very strong foundation from which to move forward. We recommend that financial and organisational support is found for the following actions:
Chrisanthi Avgerou Dear WG 9.4 members, As you may already have been informed electronically, our group has now a vice chairman, Dr Tim Waema (Institute of Computer Science, University of Nairobi, email: TWaema@ken.healthnet.org), and a secretary, Dr Shirin Madon (Department of Information Systems, London School of Economics, email: SMadon@lse.ac.uk). They are both very well known to the Group, from their publications in the field of computers and development, and their participation in our conferences. I do feel very fortunate to have the opportunity to work with them for the WG 9.4. As I described in the January Newsletter, the first task we are working on is the arrangements of our next international conference. There is however another issue I want to bring to your attention here. The recent TC9 meeting in Israel (16-17 March) discussed the `problem' of our membership. Clearly, for IFIP WG standards we are an odd group, with too many rather inactive members, and a long list of applicants for membership without adequate plans for activities in which they can be involved. The committee recognised, of course, the success of our past conferences, the Newsletter, and the lively use of our electronic mailing forum. Still, no new members were approved, and we were advised to reconsider our membership. This issue is not new, I remember we discussed it at the Cairo meeting, with particular emphasis on `non-active' members, although we did not reach any decisions. I will try here to make some suggestions about enlarging our activities, and thus, hopefully, providing opportunities for Group members to become involved. I feel that for a group of our size as well as geographic and thematic breadth we can do more. Of course, the nature of our subject of interest and the geographic spread of our members around the globe make it difficult to organise frequent working meetings as the means of elaborating on specific areas on IT and development. But the vastness of our `catchment area' may require regional activities, and we can make use of new technology to overcome distance. I suggest to organise three regional sub-groups: a)America, b)Africa, Middle East and Europe, c)Asia and Australia. Each of the three regional sub-groups should have a vice chair, and they should set up their own activities, such as regional conferences, and projects to study topics which are meaningful in the local context. To avoid isolation, each sub-group should contribute to the `global' conferences, the plenary Group meetings (which usually take place during the global conferences), and the Newsletter. We can also set up special interest sub-groups (SIG) to elaborate on particular topics, such as IT industry in developing countries, or cultural implications of the diffusion of IT. The special interest groups should also contribute to the `global' events with well thought-out reports and proposals. As for using communication technologies to overcome the barriers of distance, our group has already an excellent record doing so for the unstructured and spontaneous exchange of views, that many find particularly useful. The same technology can be used as the means for more focused, and perhaps more structured, work of a special interest group. I must admit I am not the most suitable person to suggest technology initiatives, but I know that we have many technical experts and enthusiasts among the Group members, and I rely on them to challenge the rest of us to learn to use new technology for effective communication. However, we do still need to allow for conventional communication channels as well, as not all members use, or want to use, new communication technology. These are just some ideas. I am waiting for your views too. Please send your comments and suggestions (electronically, or otherwise) to me, Shirin, or Tim to help us form some specific proposals. IT Policy and Economic Development The above conference was held on 15-16 April 1996 in Johannesburg, South Africa, in preparation for the G-7 conference on Global Information Development Society (see next article) to be held in South Africa in middle of May 1996. Subhash Bhatnagar, CMC Professor of Information Technology at Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, delivered the opening key note. He shared the status of IT industry in India and the success and failures of IT policy in India. He advocated an indirect and catalytic role for the Government and emphasizes the need to build a strong educational system in IT. He cited several support measures taken by the Government of India to enable the software industry to become a dominant international force. He also cautioned against adopting a 'magical vision' of IT particularly in dealing with programmes of development for poor segments of society. He cited the following reasons for thinking about a National Information Technology Policy:
A national policy must have a balanced emphasis on the following possible objectives:
For example, India has had a much greater emphasis on the growth of IT industry compared to other objectives. Prof. Bhatnagar also emphasizes the need for a detailed plan for implementing the policies. Nations like Singapore which seem to have succeeded in transforming their economies have done so because of well coordinated implementation of policies. The following types of initiatives in legislation, infrastructure development, and policy implementation may be required to create a socio-economic impact:
Prof. Bhatnagar was of the view that an IT policy has to work within the framework of a wider economic and social policy. If such policies are not conducive, IT policy alone can not have an impact. In the case of India, the high growth of IT industry can be attributed largely to economic liberalisation which was begun in 1991. Many other speakers emphasized the need to keep the Government role in IT focused and indirect. Some speakers from South Africa also emphasized the need for formulating policies which would encourage the development of small and medium enterprises in the IT industry. This could be done through appropriate guidelines for tendering for Government projects. A major concern of the local delegates was to enhance the use of IT in government to improve delivery of social services to dis-advantaged groups There was some discussion on how the tendering process could be improved and tenders made clearer in terms of specific objectives that the IT applications were expected to achieve. Mr. Robert Jarvis, General Manager, Government in Education Industry, IBM Asia Pacific, spoke about several successful wide area network applications in many different countries and how these were able to transform the functioning of Government organisations. The conference was found
to be very useful by the 200 delegates who represented Government, IT vendors
and academics. The ideas discussed in the conference would help National
Information Technology Forum in South Africa to contribute in the
development of a green paper on IT policy.
Richard Heeks, email:richard.heeks@man.ac.uk India was the first and is still the largest exporter of software among developing countries. Yet this industry has, until now, not been studied in depth. Richard Heeks provides the first critical analysis of the development of India's software industry and the impact on it of recent liberalisations in trade, state intervention and foreign investment policy. The study is located at the intersection of three major 1990s' trends - the growing importance of software in all aspects of business; the increasingly global nature of outsourcing by multinationals; and the continuing dominance of World Bank/IMF-inspired neo-liberal policy models. This book provides full and up-to-date details about India's US$ 500 million software outsourcing trade: production figures; number of workers; the Indian producer firms and the US and European clients involved; costs; productivity data; divisions of labour and skills; impact of automated programming tools and other threats; historical trends and future directions; etc. It provides a key focus on the role played by the Indian government in fostering (or hindering) the growth of India's software industry, and also provides analysis of the development of India's local software markets. In addition, two chapters include an in-depth analysis of the development of India's computer industry. This book's analysis probes many misconceptions, and is based on a wealth of facts and figures gathered in India and other countries for an ongoing research project. The author, Dr Richard Heeks, is a researcher based at the Institute for Development Policy and Management within the UK's University of Manchester. Order details: Sage
Publications, 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, California 91320 Journal of Holistic Research in Information Systems The Journal of Holistic Research in Information Systems will foster primarily, although not exclusively, interpretive or qualitative research methods including ethnographic, genealogical, action research and case studies of various kinds. Research that uses quantitative methods, for example statistical surveys, will be suitable if they take a broad perspective of the problems and issues. This means very often that the social and political aspects will be considered as well as the technical. Target topics that will be relevant to JoHRIS include but are not limited to:
Papers can be sent in hard or soft copy. Soft copies should be in Microsoft Word for MAC or PC format. All papers will undergo a blind referring process by at least three referees. Papers should conform strictly to the APA (American Psychological Association) Style Guide (3rd Edition). The Journal will be available in electronic form from 1997. The first issue is planned for December 1996. Please contact: Craig Standing(Editor-in-Chief), Department of Information Systems, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, Western Australia 6027. email: c.standing@cowan.edu.au A Special Issue of The Information Society on "Virtual Societies: Their Prospects and Dilemmas" Edited by During the last decade, the adjective "virtual" has become a commonplace descriptor of social forms where people do not have to live, meet or work face to face in order to develop or maintain significant social relationships. There are specialized literatures about new social forms, such as virtual corporations, virtual organizations, virtual communities and virtual classrooms, as well as related practices such as telecommuting, on-line meetings and electronic politics. While computer-networks figure frequently as enablers of these virtual social forms, other kinds of communication technologies, including paper mail, telephone and fax can also play key roles in linking people and groups. Some of the literature celebrates the flexibility and enhanced possibilities of these new forms of "virtual social life." But there are also important empirical studies of specific virtual social forms and also critical studies that examine the possible losses. Unfortunately, there is relatively little work that examines how people can live and work in societies in which these practices and social forms are widespread and mixed in with face-to-face relationships. This special issue will be a critical forum for studies of the implications of these diverse virtual forms within the larger context of "virtual societies" -- where community life, politics, work, and education depend upon information technologies in addition to, or as substitutes for, face-to-face interaction. Either theoretical or empirical papers that examine virtual societies from diverse disciplinary perspectives. A wide diversity of research methods is encouraged, including both quantitative and qualitative methods. Innovative approaches to studying virtual societies are also desirable. The Guest Editor is seeking papers that advance the debates about the character, value and viability of virtual social forms. Possible contributions include the following kinds of papers:
Authors should follow the standard TIS guidelines for preparation of the manuscript (visit the web site at "http://www.ics.uci.edu/~kling/tis.html"). Five copies of the paper should be sent no later than by July 31, 1996 to: Magid Igbaria, Guest Editor, TIS Programs in Information Science, The Claremont Graduate School, 130 East Ninth Street, Claremont, CA 91711, E-Mail: Igbariam@cgs.edu |